Analytics
How we model revenue at risk (without pretending it is exact)
By XRAYAI | 15 Mar 2026

The headline dollar figure on a diagnostic report gets attention. What matters is whether the working behind it is honest. A confident "$14,200 per month at risk" with no methodology is marketing, not analysis.
We combine three inputs: category benchmarks for conversion rates and average order value, traffic proxies built from publicly available signals, and the severity of the specific issues we find on your site. A regional law firm with a slow mobile homepage and broken forms gets a different number from a Sydney CBD café with strong fundamentals and a small content gap. The methodology is the same; the inputs are not.
AI visibility now sits inside the same model. If your category sees a meaningful share of buyer queries flow through ChatGPT, Perplexity, or Google's AI Overviews, being absent from those answers is revenue at risk in the same way that being on page two of Google has always been. We weight it accordingly, and we show the assumptions on every report so you can see how much of the headline figure depends on that channel.
When the data is thin, we widen the range and narrow the claims. A brand-new site with no organic footprint gets a directional estimate, not a precise figure. We would rather under-promise than print a number you cannot defend in a board meeting or to your accountant.
Use the estimate the way it is intended: to rank projects by upside, not to litigate decimal places with your finance team. If your report says fixing AI visibility is worth roughly three times more than fixing your meta descriptions, do AI visibility first, and use a specialist if the moves are not obvious. That is the decision the number is there to support.
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